‘Climate Change as Driver of Migration: Implications for UK National Security’

All-Party Parliamentary Group for Climate, Nature & SecurityInquiry 2026

Climate Change as a Driver of Migration: Implications for UK National Security

Call for Written Evidence

The All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) for Climate, Nature & Security hosted expert evidence sessions and invited written submissions to inform its 2026 parliamentary inquiry into:

‘Climate Change as a Driver of Migration: Implications for UK National Security’

This inquiry examined how climate change, environmental degradation, and biodiversity loss interact with conflict, governance fragility, economic vulnerability, and demographic pressures to drive displacement and migration, and what the implications are for UK national security strategy.

The APPG collated evidence that advances understanding of climate-related mobility not solely as a humanitarian or development challenge, but as a structural risk multiplier with direct implications for UK security, defence, foreign policy, and domestic resilience.

Scope of the Inquiry

Written submissions were invited addressing one or more of the following themes:

1. Climate and Nature as Structural Drivers of Mobility

• How do climate hazards (drought, extreme heat, flooding, sea-level rise, desertification) interact with ecosystem collapse and biodiversity loss to erode livelihoods?

• What is the relationship between environmental degradation, resource stress (e.g., water, food, land), and population movement?

• To what extent can climate-related migration be forecast using existing data and early warning systems?

2. Climate-Conflict-Migration Nexus

• How do climate stressors interact with conflict dynamics and governance fragility?

• What evidence exists linking environmental pressures to instability, radicalisation, or organised crime?

• What lessons can be drawn from fragile and conflict-affected states, particularly those in the Middle East and North Africa?

3. Implications for UK National Security

• How does climate-driven displacement affect UK strategic interests abroad?

• What are the implications for border management, defence planning, intelligence assessment, and development policy?

• How does climate related to the UK’s National Security strategy?

4. Early Warning, Intelligence, and Risk Assessment

• What analytical frameworks, indicators, or indices can strengthen anticipatory policy?

• How can climate security intelligence capabilities support upstream capacity building and prevention?

• What role, if any, should satellite data, AI-enabled analysis, and cross-government data integration play?

5. Prevention, Adaptation, and Resilience

• What policy interventions reduce the likelihood of climate-induced displacement?

• How can nature restoration, water security, food systems resilience, and local governance reform mitigate forced migration risks?

• What is the role of defence engagement, development finance, and private capital in building resilience?

6. Legal and Normative Considerations

• Are current international legal frameworks adequate to address climate-related displacement?

• Should the UK advocate for reform or new mechanisms?

Types of Contributors Sought

The APPG welcomed submissions from:

• Academic researchers

• Humanitarian and development agencies

• Security and defence practitioners

• Intelligence and risk analysis professionals

• Environmental and climate scientists

• Civil society organisations

• Financial and insurance sector analysts

• Technology and data specialists

• International and multilateral organisations

Submissions from individuals with lived experience of climate- and environment-related displacement were particularly encouraged, with several refugees providing evidence to the inquiry.

Purpose of the Inquiry

This inquiry aims to inform parliamentary debate and generate policy recommendations to His Majesty’s Government on how climate and nature risks affect migration trends and should be recognised in UK national security planning.